WINNIPEG – TheNewswire - Feb 20 2024 – A recent examination of employment statistics in Alberta conducted by the Frontier Centre for Public Policy (FCPP) sheds light on the economic challenges faced by the province under the Trudeau government, despite periods of growth during the United Conservative Party (UCP) era.

The study “Twelve Years of Labour in Alberta: A Tale of three political eras” reveals a significant transformation in Alberta’s economic performance. During Alberta’s last Progressive Conservative term, which coincided with a majority Conservative government at the federal level, compensation for Alberta employees surged by an impressive 25 percent, outpacing the national growth rate of 15.7 percent. This period marked a thriving Alberta economy, demonstrating the province’s dynamic economic landscape.

However, since the federal Liberals took office in November 2015 and the New Democratic Party (NDP) government, led by Rachel Notley, came to power in Alberta in May 2015, the economic outlook has changed. Total compensation (wages and benefits) for Alberta employees has grown by only 13.4 percent over eight and a half years, while the rest of Canada has experienced three times that growth at 48.1 percent. Notably, wages and salaries in mining and oil and gas extraction in Alberta grew by just 3.6 percent, in stark contrast to the national growth rate of 14.8 percent during the same period.

Lee Harding, a Research Fellow at the FCPP and the study’s author, points out, “Ottawa has looked at Alberta’s fossil-fuel-based economy with disapproval, and regulations aimed at constraining fossil fuel development and exports have taken a toll. Alberta, once a leader, has now fallen behind, outpaced threefold by the rest of Canada.”

The study also highlights a concerning trend in Alberta’s employment growth. While Canada’s employment growth has matched its working-age population growth from October 2011 to November 2023, Alberta faces a different reality. The number of people aged 15 to 64 in Alberta has grown 34.5 percent faster than its employment growth, surpassed only by Newfoundland and Labrador with a 36 percent gap. In contrast, Quebec has seen employment grow 36 percent faster than its population.

The report also raises concerns about workforce participation in Alberta, as many individuals have given up on finding employment. Over the past 12 years, non-participation rates in the workforce grew by 63.9 percent for men and 39.8 percent for women in Alberta, compared to 26.2 percent and 18.2 percent respectively, nationally.

Harding notes, “Across the prairies, but most notably in Alberta, employment growth is lagging behind the growth in the working-age population. Quebec’s success in this area may reflect a more focused approach to immigration that prioritizes employment.”

In addition, the study notes that Alberta has exhibited restraint in the growth of its provincial and municipal bureaucracies over the past 12 years, particularly during the NDP era when total private sector wages contracted. In contrast, the Trudeau government has expanded the federal bureaucracy while the self-employed sector has stagnated.

“Canada has only seen a marginal increase of 7,000 more self-employed individuals over the past 12 years, with 6,000 of them from Alberta. This unsustainable trend should raise concerns for policymakers across the country,” warns Harding.

Despite the challenges, during the UCP era, Alberta has outperformed its provincial counterparts and national averages in various aspects, such as growth in the working-age population, labour force, employment numbers, and full-time employment rates. However, the gap between working-age population growth and employment growth in Alberta continues to widen faster than in other provinces like British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

The study also highlights the growth in wages in certain sectors in Alberta, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, which experienced an impressive 82.5 percent increase. These sectors, along with health care and social services, were the only ones in which the growth in total wages and salaries exceeded the Canadian average.

Looking ahead, the study warns of potential threats to Alberta’s resource-based economy, as Ottawa’s push for net-zero carbon emissions extends beyond the energy industry to impact agriculture, potentially jeopardizing both crops and livestock.

The Frontier Centre for Public Policy’s comprehensive study provides valuable insights into the shifting economic landscape in Alberta over the past twelve years, highlighting distinct differences between political eras. It serves as a crucial resource for policymakers and economists seeking to understand the challenges and opportunities facing the province.

Click here to download the Report.

For more information:

Author
Lee Harding
Research fellow
lee.harding@fcpp.org

David Leis
VP Development and Engagement
david.leis@fcpp.org
604-864-1275

About the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

The Frontier Centre for Public Policy is an independent, non-partisan think tank that conducts research and analysis on a wide range of public policy issues. Committed to promoting economic freedom, individual liberty, and responsible governance, the Centre aims to contribute to informed public debates and shape effective policies that benefit Canadians.