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New analysis from Anthony Milewski and The Oregon Group reveals how China’s tungsten export controls, a looming US defence deadline, and accelerating demand from semiconductors and defence are creating one of the most acute critical mineral supply crises of 2026

London, United Kingdom — May 7, 2026 – TheNewswire — The Oregon Group today released new research from founder Anthony Milewski examining the rapid rise in tungsten prices and the growing geopolitical battle over one of the world’s most strategic critical minerals.

The report, titled “Why Tungsten Prices Are Rising So Fast: Inside the Supply Crunch,” explores how tightening Chinese export controls, structural supply deficits, and accelerating demand from defense and semiconductor industries are reshaping the global tungsten market.

Read the full report here:
https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/tungsten/why-tungsten-prices-are-rising-so-fast-inside-the-supply-crunch/

According to the analysis, tungsten prices have surged approximately 900% over the past twelve months. Rotterdam APT (ammonium paratungstate) — the key tungsten price benchmark — is now trading at over US$3,185 per metric tonne unit, at a greater than 50% premium to Chinese domestic prices, as Western buyers find themselves increasingly cut off from the world’s dominant supplier.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• Tungsten prices have surged approximately 900% over the past twelve months to over US$3,185/MTU in Rotterdam

• China controls roughly 80% of global tungsten production and processing

• Western governments increasingly classify tungsten as a strategic critical mineral

• Demand from aerospace, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and defense continues to accelerate

• Supply constraints are creating long-term structural deficits in the tungsten market

• The United States and allied nations are prioritizing domestic and allied tungsten supply chains

• The US has mandated that Chinese-sourced tungsten be eliminated from military supply chains by January 1, 2027 — a deadline now less than eight months away, with no domestic mine production to fall back on

“Tungsten is no longer just an industrial metal — it is becoming a strategic geopolitical resource,” said Anthony Milewski, founder of The Oregon Group. “As global tensions rise and nations move to secure critical mineral supply chains, tungsten has emerged as one of the clearest examples of how resource security is becoming national security.”

China’s Dominance Creates Strategic Vulnerability

The report highlights that China’s dominance over tungsten mining and downstream processing has become a growing concern for Western governments, particularly as demand rises from military applications, semiconductors, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing. The United States has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015 and is 100% import dependent — a vulnerability made more acute by a Congressional mandate requiring Chinese-sourced tungsten to be removed from US military supply chains by January 1, 2027.

Tungsten is widely used in:

• Aerospace and defense systems

• Semiconductor manufacturing

• Industrial cutting and drilling tools

• Electronics and AI infrastructure

• High-performance alloys and advanced manufacturing

Governments including the United States, European Union, Japan, and South Korea have all designated tungsten as a critical mineral due to its strategic importance and concentrated supply chain risk.

The Oregon Group’s analysis suggests the tungsten market may remain in structural deficit for years as new mine supply outside China struggles to keep pace with rising global demand.

“Critical minerals are increasingly becoming the foundation of geopolitical competition,” Milewski added. “The tungsten market demonstrates how quickly strategic supply shortages can emerge when a single country dominates production.”

Rising Demand from AI, Semiconductors, and Defense

The report also examines how accelerating investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and defense modernization is increasing long-term tungsten demand globally.

Tungsten plays a critical role in semiconductor manufacturing due to its heat resistance, density, and electrical conductivity, making it essential for advanced chip production and high-performance electronics.

The Oregon Group notes that growing defense spending and increasing focus on supply chain security could continue to support elevated tungsten prices and renewed investment in Western tungsten projects.

About The Oregon Group

The Oregon Group is an investment research and media platform focused on critical minerals, energy, geopolitics, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and global supply chains. The firm publishes institutional-grade analysis on the commodities and technologies shaping the future global economy.

About Anthony Milewski

Anthony Milewski is the founder of The Oregon Group and a recognized authority on critical minerals, mining, geopolitics, and the global energy transition. Milewski has written extensively on strategic commodities, supply chain security, and resource nationalism, and is a frequent commentator on tungsten, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, and the geopolitics of critical mineral supply chains. His analysis reaches institutional investors, policymakers, and industry participants globally through The Oregon Group’s research platform at theoregongroup.com.

Media Contact

The Oregon Group
info@theoregongroup.com
https://theoregongroup.com

SOURCE The Oregon Group

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